Italy vs France

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

With a 82% probability rating, X2 stands out as the confident call for Italy vs France in the UEFA Nations League, priced at odds of 1.22.

World: UEFA Nations League
Thu, 12th Nov, 2026 League A - 5
Italy

Italy

2nd in table

L W D W
NS
VS
France

France

1st in table

W W D W
Prediction: X2 (1.22 Odds)
Double Chance 82% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.05

Italy

0.80

0.80 – 1.25

France

1.25

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan Istvan Kovacs

Italy

3.75

25% implied

Draw

3.70

26% implied

France

1.95

49% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Double Chance Free

X2

Odds 1.22 82%

Head to head

Last 5 meetings
5 games

2

Italy wins

1

Draws

2

France wins

3.2

Goals / game

80%

Both scored

60%

Over 2.5

02 Oct 2026
France
1-1
Italy
17 Nov 2024
Italy
1-3
France
06 Sep 2024
France
1-3
Italy
01 Jun 2018
France
3-1
Italy
17 Jun 2008
France
0-2
Italy

UEFA Nations League table

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1
France
4 3 1 0 7:2 5 10
2
Italy
4 2 1 1 8:5 3 7
3
Belgium
4 2 0 2 6:5 1 6
4
Türkiye
4 0 0 4 2:11 -9 0

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
# Player Team Goals
1
H. Kane
England
6
2
M. Olise
France
4
3
Lamine Yamal
Spain
4
4
L. Walta
Finland
4
5
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
4
6
T. Parrott
Rep. Of Ireland
4
7
O. Óskarsson
Iceland
3
8
Mikel Merino
Spain
3
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Portugal
3
10
João Félix
Portugal
3

Recent form

Italy

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Türkiye 3-1 W
A France 1-1 D
A Türkiye 1-4 W
H Belgium 0-2 L
A Greece 0-1 W
A Luxembourg 0-1 W
H Northern Ireland 2-0 W
H Norway 1-4 L
A Moldova 0-2 W
H Israel 3-0 W

France

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Belgium 4-1 W
H Italy 1-1 D
A Belgium 0-1 W
A Türkiye 0-1 W
H England 4-6 L
H Spain 0-2 L
H Morocco 2-0 W
A Paraguay 0-1 W
H Sweden 3-0 W
A Norway 1-4 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.05

Italy

0.80

xG

Match

0.80 – 1.25

France

1.25

xG

Our tip model

8%
10%
82%

API-Football

10%
45%
45%

Bookmaker

25%
26%
49%
Italy Draw France

Most likely scores

1:1

14.3%

1:2

11.8%

0:1

10.5%

0:2

10%

2:2

8.3%

2:1

7.7%

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 83%
Over 2.5 goals 60%
Over 3.5 goals 38%
Both teams to score 64%

Team comparison

Italy France
41% Recent form 59%
53% Attack 47%
29% Defence 71%
0% Poisson 100%
50% Head-to-head 50%
50% Goals 50%
45% Overall 55%

Double chance : draw or France

Season numbers

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
3
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
2
2
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
5
0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
1
2
46-60'
0
2
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0

Side by side

Italy France
4 Played 4
2 Won 3
1 Drawn 1
1 Lost 0
8 Goals for 7
5 Goals against 2
0 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 0

What comes next

Italy

France (H) 12 Nov HARD
Belgium (A) 15 Nov EASY

France

Italy (A) 12 Nov MID
Türkiye (H) 15 Nov EASY

Betting markets

Odds · implied %
Over 1.5 1.20
83% implied
Under 1.5 4.33
23% implied
Over 2.5 1.67
60% implied
Under 2.5 2.15
47% implied
Over 3.5 2.62
38% implied
Under 3.5 1.44
69% implied
Over 0.5 1.03
97% implied
Under 0.5 15.00
7% implied
Over 4.5 5.00
20% implied
Under 4.5 1.17
85% implied
Over 7.5 41.00
2% implied
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 10.00
10% implied
Under 5.5 1.06
94% implied
Over 6.5 21.00
5% implied
Under 6.5 1.01
99% implied
Yes 1.57
64% implied
No 2.25
44% implied
Home/Draw 1.83
55% implied
Home/Away 1.28
78% implied
Draw/Away 1.25
80% implied
1:0 15.00
7% implied
2:0 21.00
5% implied
2:1 13.00
8% implied
3:0 41.00
2% implied
3:1 29.00
3% implied
3:2 29.00
3% implied
4:0 81.00
1% implied
4:1 51.00
2% implied
0:0 13.00
8% implied
1:1 7.00
14% implied
2:2 12.00
8% implied
0:1 9.50
11% implied
0:2 10.00
10% implied
0:3 17.00
6% implied
1:2 8.50
12% implied
1:3 13.00
8% implied
2:3 21.00
5% implied
3:3 41.00
2% implied
0:4 34.00
3% implied
1:4 26.00
4% implied
2:4 41.00
2% implied
4:2 67.00
1% implied
0:5 51.00
2% implied
0:6 126.00
1% implied
Home/Draw 15.00
7% implied
Home/Away 21.00
5% implied
Draw/Away 5.00
20% implied
Draw/Draw 6.00
17% implied
Home/Home 6.00
17% implied
Draw/Home 8.50
12% implied
Away/Home 29.00
3% implied
Away/Draw 13.00
8% implied
Away/Away 3.00
33% implied
Home -1 6.80
15% implied
Away -1 1.10
91% implied
Home -0.75 4.65
22% implied
Away -0.75 1.18
85% implied
Home -0.5 4.00
25% implied
Away -0.5 1.22
82% implied
Home -0.25 3.30
30% implied
Away -0.25 1.32
76% implied
Home +0 2.85
35% implied
Away +0 1.40
71% implied
Home +0.25 2.20
45% implied
Away +0.25 1.65
61% implied
Home +0.5 1.91
52% implied
Away +0.5 1.85
54% implied
Home +0.75 1.68
60% implied
Away +0.75 2.15
47% implied
Home +1 1.48
68% implied
Away +1 2.60
38% implied
Home +2 1.13
88% implied
Away +2 5.90
17% implied
Home -1.5 9.00
11% implied
Away -1.5 1.07
93% implied
Home +1.25 1.38
72% implied
Away +1.25 3.00
33% implied
Over 9.5 1.91
52% implied
Under 9.5 1.80
56% implied

Italy vs France: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Double Chance: X2 (1.22 odds).

Italy are rated 8% by our tip model, with the draw at 10% and France at 82%.

In the last 5 meetings they averaged 3.2 goals per game, with BTTS in 80% and over 2.5 in 60%.

Double chance : draw or France

Italy vs France FAQs

What is the best prediction for Italy vs France?

Our top tip is Double Chance: X2 (1.22 odds).

Who will win Italy vs France?

Model lean: Italy 8%, draw 10%, France 82%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 3.2 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 60% of the time.

When is Italy vs France?

Thursday, 12th November 2026 at 19:45 UTC , San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.

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Match Preview

With a 82% probability rating, X2 stands out as the confident call for Italy vs France in the UEFA Nations League, priced at odds of 1.22.

Match Info Summary

Teams: Italy vs France 

Date: Thu, Nov 12, 2026

Time: 19:45 UTC 

Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

Check our prediction page now to see the complete Italy vs France prediction, analysis, and odds for today. 

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Written by

Matoski

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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