Libertad vs Emelec

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Our expert prediction for Libertad vs Emelec is 1, at odds of 2.40 with a 42% probability rating.

Ecuador: Liga Pro
Sat, 7th Nov, 2026 Placement Group - 6
Libertad

Libertad

7th in table

W W W L D
FT
0 - 1
Emelec

Emelec

10th in table

L L W L L
54' Teodoro Arce
59' Jackson Rodriguez
77' Ezequiel Luis Medrán
78' Alexander Arboleda
86' Aníbal Leguizamón
Prediction: 1 (2.40 Odds) Lost
Home Win 42% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.40

Libertad

1.55

1.55 – 0.85

Emelec

0.85

Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira

Libertad

2.40

38% implied

Draw

3.00

30% implied

Emelec

2.88

32% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

1.5 Goals Lost

+1.5

Odds 1.30 77%
Home Win Lost

1

Odds 2.40 42%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Libertad vs Emelec

52%   Possession   48%

5   Shots on Target   7

0   Pass Accuracy   0

5   Corner Kicks   3

13   Fouls   12

0 1 1
3 2 0

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9 games

2

Libertad wins

5

Draws

2

Emelec wins

1.9

Goals / game

67%

Both scored

33%

Over 2.5

20 Sep 2026
Emelec
1-2
Libertad
04 Sep 2026
Libertad
1-1
Emelec
10 May 2026
Emelec
1-1
Libertad
03 Aug 2025
Libertad
1-2
Emelec
12 Apr 2025
Emelec
1-1
Libertad
30 Nov 2024
Libertad
2-1
Emelec
01 Jun 2024
Emelec
0-0
Libertad
05 Aug 2023
Libertad
0-0
Emelec
27 Feb 2023
Emelec
2-0
Libertad

Liga Pro table

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1
Independiente del Valle
30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
2
Universidad Catolica
30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
3
Macara
30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
4
Aucas
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
5
LDU de Quito
30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
6
Barcelona SC
30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
7
Libertad
30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
8
Leones del Norte
30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
9
Guayaquil City FC
30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
10
Emelec
30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
11
Mushuc Runa SC
30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
12
Deportivo Cuenca
30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
13
Orense SC
30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
14
Tecnico Universitario
30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
15
Delfin SC
30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
16
Manta FC
30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21

Top scorers

Liga Pro
# Player Team Goals
1
F. Posse
Macara
17
2
E. Mero
Guayaquil City FC
13
3
Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
Libertad
13
4
R. Carrillo
Emelec
13
5
J. Fajardo
Universidad Catolica
13
6
A. Campana
Macara
12
7
A. Herrera
Orense SC
12
8
C. González
Independiente del Valle
11
9
Juan Luis Anangonó León
Leones del Norte
11
10
F. Ayunta
Delfin SC
11

Recent form

Libertad

4 W 2 D 4 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Emelec 0-1 L
A Guayaquil City FC 0-0 D
A Leones del Norte 4-1 L
H Guayaquil City FC 4-0 W
H Leones del Norte 3-0 W
A Emelec 1-2 W
H Independiente del Valle 2-3 L
A Deportivo Cuenca 0-1 W
H Emelec 1-1 D
A Aucas 1-0 L

Emelec

4 W 1 D 5 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Libertad 0-1 W
H Leones del Norte 0-2 L
H Guayaquil City FC 0-1 L
A Leones del Norte 1-3 W
A Guayaquil City FC 3-2 L
H Libertad 1-2 L
A Macara 1-0 L
H Manta FC 1-0 W
A Libertad 1-1 D
H Leones del Norte 2-1 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.40

Libertad

1.55

xG

Match

1.55 – 0.85

Emelec

0.85

xG

Our tip model

42%
32%
26%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

38%
30%
32%
Libertad Draw Emelec

Most likely scores

1:1

14.3%

2:1

11.8%

1:0

10.5%

2:0

10%

2:2

8.3%

3:1

7.7%

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 85%
Over 2.5 goals 61%
Over 3.5 goals 40%
Both teams to score 62%

Team comparison

Libertad Emelec
77% Recent form 23%
63% Attack 38%
64% Defence 36%
72% Poisson 28%
50% Head-to-head 50%
50% Goals 50%
63% Overall 38%

Double chance : Libertad or draw

Season numbers

When the goals come

1
0-15'
1
6
16-30'
9
9
31-45'
5
6
46-60'
7
9
61-75'
4
11
76-90'
2
3
0-15'
1
6
16-30'
7
5
31-45'
6
6
46-60'
9
10
61-75'
7
8
76-90'
10

Side by side

Libertad Emelec
35 Played 35
14 Won 11
9 Drawn 9
12 Lost 15
43 Goals for 31
39 Goals against 43
13 Clean sheets 10
10 Failed to score 13

Betting markets

Odds · implied %
Over 1.5 1.18
85% implied
Under 1.5 4.50
22% implied
Over 2.5 1.65
61% implied
Under 2.5 2.20
45% implied
Over 3.5 2.50
40% implied
Under 3.5 1.50
67% implied
Over 0.5 1.03
97% implied
Under 0.5 15.00
7% implied
Over 4.5 4.50
22% implied
Under 4.5 1.18
85% implied
Over 7.5 41.00
2% implied
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 10.00
10% implied
Under 5.5 1.06
94% implied
Over 6.5 19.00
5% implied
Under 6.5 1.02
98% implied
Yes 1.62
62% implied
No 2.20
45% implied
Home/Draw 1.25
80% implied
Home/Away 1.28
78% implied
Draw/Away 1.83
55% implied
1:0 9.50
11% implied
2:0 10.00
10% implied
2:1 8.50
12% implied
3:0 15.00
7% implied
3:1 13.00
8% implied
3:2 21.00
5% implied
4:0 29.00
3% implied
4:1 26.00
4% implied
0:0 15.00
7% implied
1:1 7.00
14% implied
2:2 12.00
8% implied
0:1 15.00
7% implied
0:2 23.00
4% implied
0:3 41.00
2% implied
1:2 15.00
7% implied
1:3 29.00
3% implied
2:3 34.00
3% implied
3:3 41.00
2% implied
0:4 101.00
1% implied
1:4 67.00
1% implied
2:4 67.00
1% implied
4:2 41.00
2% implied
0:5 301.00
1:5 151.00
1% implied
Home/Draw 13.00
8% implied
Home/Away 29.00
3% implied
Draw/Away 8.00
13% implied
Draw/Draw 6.00
17% implied
Home/Home 3.10
32% implied
Draw/Home 5.50
18% implied
Away/Home 21.00
5% implied
Away/Draw 15.00
7% implied
Away/Away 5.50
18% implied
Home -1.25 3.00
33% implied
Away -1.25 1.38
72% implied
Home -1 2.68
37% implied
Away -1 1.45
69% implied
Home -0.75 2.20
45% implied
Away -0.75 1.65
61% implied
Home -0.5 1.91
52% implied
Away -0.5 1.83
55% implied
Home -0.25 1.68
60% implied
Away -0.25 2.15
47% implied
Home +0 1.45
69% implied
Away +0 2.68
37% implied
Home +0.25 1.35
74% implied
Away +0.25 3.10
32% implied
Home +0.5 1.27
79% implied
Away +0.5 3.55
28% implied
Home +0.75 1.19
84% implied
Away +0.75 4.50
22% implied
Home -2 6.00
17% implied
Away -2 1.12
89% implied
Home +1 1.10
91% implied
Away +1 6.80
15% implied
Home -1.75 4.15
24% implied
Away -1.75 1.22
82% implied
Over 9.5 1.98
51% implied
Under 9.5 1.82
55% implied

Libertad vs Emelec: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (2.40 odds).

Libertad are rated 42% by our tip model, with the draw at 32% and Emelec at 26%.

In the last 9 meetings they averaged 1.9 goals per game, with BTTS in 67% and over 2.5 in 33%.

Double chance : Libertad or draw

Libertad vs Emelec FAQs

What is the best prediction for Libertad vs Emelec?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (2.40 odds).

Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?

Model lean: Libertad 42%, draw 32%, Emelec 26%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 67% of the last 9 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 1.9 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 33% of the time.

When is Libertad vs Emelec?

Saturday, 7th November 2026 at 19:00 UTC , Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.

S

Written by

Sam M

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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