Toluca vs Leon

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Toluca arrive in strong form (WLWW) and are well-fancied to back 1X against Leon, with our model giving this a 82% probability at odds of 1.22.

World: Leagues Cup
Thu, 3rd Sep, 2026 Semi-finals
Toluca

Toluca

W L W W
FT
2 - 0
Leon

Leon

W W W W
18' Javier Gandolfi
26' Irving Martínez
39' Bruno Méndez
39' Juan Guevara
41' Andres Pereira
44' Nicolás Castro
69' Federico Viñas
74' Jordi Cortizo
75' Jhohan Romana
75' Jhohan Romana
75' Bryan Colula
80' Daniel Arcila
Prediction: 1X (1.22 Odds) Won
Double Chance 82% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.75

Toluca

1.50

1.50 – 1.25

Leon

1.25

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston Said Martinez, Honduras

Toluca

1.80

52% implied

Draw

3.60

26% implied

Leon

4.20

22% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Double Chance Won

1X

Odds 1.22 82%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Toluca vs Leon

56%   Possession   44%

8   Shots on Target   1

0   Pass Accuracy   0

4   Corner Kicks   5

15   Fouls   15

1 1 2
0 5 1

Head to head

Last 8 meetings
8 games

4

Toluca wins

3

Draws

1

Leon wins

3.5

Goals / game

63%

Both scored

63%

Over 2.5

26 Apr 2026
Toluca
4-1
Leon
05 Oct 2025
Leon
2-4
Toluca
09 Feb 2025
Leon
3-3
Toluca
02 Nov 2024
Toluca
2-2
Leon
03 Feb 2024
Toluca
4-1
Leon
21 Oct 2023
Leon
1-0
Toluca
29 Jan 2023
Toluca
0-0
Leon
27 Jul 2022
Leon
0-1
Toluca

Top scorers

Leagues Cup
# Player Team Goals
1
D. Arcila
Leon
4
2
M. Uzuni
Austin
4
3
B. Rodríguez
Club America
3
4
D. Cambindo
Leon
3
5
F. Viñas
Toluca
3
6
H. Cuypers
Monterrey
3
7
A. Lassiter
Portland Timbers
3
8
Helinho
Toluca
3
9
D. Rossi
Monterrey
2
10
Brais Méndez
Columbus Crew
2

Recent form

Toluca

2 W 5 D 3 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Monterrey 4-0 W
A Club America 2-2 D
A Leon 1-1 D
H Club Tijuana 2-2 D
H Atletico San Luis 1-1 D
A Tigres UANL 3-2 L
A Monterrey 2-1 L
A Cruz Azul 3-3 D
H Santos Laguna 2-3 L
A Puebla 0-1 W

Leon

3 W 4 D 3 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 D
A Cruz Azul 2-1 L
H Toluca 1-1 D
A Tigres UANL 0-2 W
H Club America 3-5 L
A Puebla 1-1 D
H FC Juarez 2-1 W
A Club Queretaro 1-1 D
H Atletico San Luis 2-0 W
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.75

Toluca

1.50

xG

Match

1.50 – 1.25

Leon

1.25

xG

Our tip model

82%
10%
8%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

52%
26%
22%
Toluca Draw Leon

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Toluca Leon
43% Recent form 57%
47% Attack 53%
60% Defence 40%
50% Poisson 50%
85% Head-to-head 15%
65% Goals 35%
58% Overall 42%

Double chance : Toluca or draw

Season numbers

When the goals come

2
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
1
31-45'
0
2
46-60'
2
1
61-75'
4
2
76-90'
2
1
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
2
0
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
0

Side by side

Toluca Leon
4 Played 4
3 Won 4
0 Drawn 0
1 Lost 0
8 Goals for 9
2 Goals against 3
2 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 0

What comes next

Toluca

CF Pachuca (A) 21 Nov MID

Leon

Santos Laguna (A) 21 Nov MID

Toluca vs Leon: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.22 odds).

Toluca are rated 82% by our tip model, with the draw at 10% and Leon at 8%.

In the last 8 meetings they averaged 3.5 goals per game, with BTTS in 63% and over 2.5 in 63%.

Double chance : Toluca or draw

Toluca vs Leon FAQs

What is the best prediction for Toluca vs Leon?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.22 odds).

Who will win Toluca vs Leon?

Model lean: Toluca 82%, draw 10%, Leon 8%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 63% of the last 8 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 3.5 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 63% of the time.

When is Toluca vs Leon?

Thursday, 3rd September 2026 at 01:00 UTC .

J

Written by

Joshua J

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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