Santos vs Atletico-MG

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Santos arrive in strong form (WWWWD) and are well-fancied to back 1X against Atletico-MG at MRV Arena, with our model giving this a 74% probability at odds of 1.36.

World: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Wed, 9th Sep, 2026 Quarter-finals
Santos

Santos

W W W W D
FT
2 - 0
Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG

D W W W D
31' Willian Arao
68' C. Oliva
Prediction: 1X (1.36 Odds)
Double Chance 74% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.95

Santos

1.85

1.85 – 1.10

Atletico-MG

1.10

Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos A. Herrera

Santos

2.30

41% implied

Draw

3.25

29% implied

Atletico-MG

3.25

29% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Double Chance Free

1X

Odds 1.36 74%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Santos vs Atletico-MG

42%   Possession   58%

7   Shots on Target   3

0   Pass Accuracy   0

6   Corner Kicks   2

9   Fouls   8

0 0 1
3 0 0

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7 games

2

Santos wins

3

Draws

2

Atletico-MG wins

1.7

Goals / game

43%

Both scored

14%

Over 2.5

11 Apr 2026
Santos
1-0
Atletico-MG
14 Sep 2025
Atletico-MG
1-1
Santos
17 Apr 2025
Santos
2-0
Atletico-MG
27 Aug 2023
Atletico-MG
2-0
Santos
23 Apr 2023
Santos
0-0
Atletico-MG
06 Oct 2022
Santos
1-2
Atletico-MG
11 Jun 2022
Atletico-MG
1-1
Santos

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1
Macara
6 2 4 0 6:3 3 10
2
Tigre
6 2 3 1 8:5 3 9
3
America de Cali
6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
4
Alianza Atletico
6 0 2 4 2:9 -7 2

Top scorers

CONMEBOL Sudamericana
# Player Team Goals
1
S. Rodríguez
Atletico Torque
7
2
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
6
3
Adson
Vasco DA Gama
5
4
Bernard
Atletico-MG
5
5
R. Contreras
Millonarios
5
6
C. Garcés
Cienciano
4
7
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
4
8
T. Cuello
Atletico-MG
3
9
F. González
O'Higgins
3
10
A. Hohberg
Cienciano
3

Recent form

Santos

5 W 3 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A RB Bragantino 2-1 L
H Palmeiras 0-0 D
H Bahia 1-1 D
A Fluminense 1-2 W
A Atletico-MG 2-1 L
H Flamengo 2-2 D
A Sao Paulo 1-2 W
A Remo 1-2 W
H Cruzeiro 2-1 W
H Atletico-MG 2-0 W

Atletico-MG

3 W 2 D 5 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Gremio 1-1 D
A Botafogo 1-0 L
A Gremio 2-0 L
H Cruzeiro 0-1 L
A Flamengo 3-2 L
A Atletico Torque 2-0 L
H Coritiba 1-0 W
H Atletico Torque 3-0 W
H Santos 2-1 W
A Atletico Paranaense 2-2 D

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.95

Santos

1.85

xG

Match

1.85 – 1.10

Atletico-MG

1.10

xG

Our tip model

74%
14%
12%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

41%
29%
29%
Santos Draw Atletico-MG

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Santos Atletico-MG
54% Recent form 46%
62% Attack 38%
50% Defence 50%
65% Poisson 35%
62% Head-to-head 38%
57% Goals 43%
58% Overall 42%

Double chance : Santos or draw

Season numbers

When the goals come

3
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
2
6
31-45'
3
3
46-60'
1
2
61-75'
2
3
76-90'
3
2
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
2
1
31-45'
2
2
46-60'
1
2
61-75'
0
3
76-90'
3

Side by side

Santos Atletico-MG
10 Played 8
4 Won 4
5 Drawn 2
1 Lost 2
18 Goals for 11
10 Goals against 8
2 Clean sheets 3
2 Failed to score 1

What comes next

Santos

Coritiba (A) 18 Nov MID
Gremio (H) 24 Nov MID
Vitoria (A) 29 Nov MID
Botafogo (H) 03 Dec MID

Atletico-MG

Mirassol (A) 14 Nov MID
Boca Juniors (H) 21 Nov MID
Corinthians (H) 25 Nov MID
Vasco DA Gama (H) 29 Nov MID

Santos vs Atletico-MG: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.36 odds).

Santos are rated 74% by our tip model, with the draw at 14% and Atletico-MG at 12%.

In the last 7 meetings they averaged 1.7 goals per game, with BTTS in 43% and over 2.5 in 14%.

Double chance : Santos or draw

Santos vs Atletico-MG FAQs

What is the best prediction for Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.36 odds).

Who will win Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Model lean: Santos 74%, draw 14%, Atletico-MG 12%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 43% of the last 7 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 1.7 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 14% of the time.

When is Santos vs Atletico-MG?

Wednesday, 9th September 2026 at 22:00 UTC , MRV Arena.

J

Written by

Joshua J

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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