Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict
Aretxabaleta and Derio enter this one evenly matched on recent form, so we're leaning on -2.5 at odds of 1.75 (57% probability) to edge the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 clash.
Spain: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
Aretxabaleta
Derio
Expected Goals (xG)
Total 1.05
Aretxabaleta
0.50
0.50 – 0.55
Derio
0.55
Aretxabaleta
2.5036% implied
Draw
3.2028% implied
Derio
2.5036% implied
1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)
-2.5
0
Aretxabaleta wins
0
Draws
4
Derio wins
1.8
Goals / game
25%
Both scored
25%
Over 2.5
Derio
Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
Derio
Aretxabaleta
0.50
xG
Match
0.50 – 0.55
Derio
0.55
xG
Our tip model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Aretxabaleta
Derio
Combo Double chance : draw or Derio and -2.5 goals
Aretxabaleta
Derio
Aretxabaleta
Deportivo Alavés III
(A)
14 Nov
MID
Sodupe
(H)
22 Nov
MID
Erandio
(A)
29 Nov
MID
Leioa
(H)
06 Dec
MID
Derio
Eibar III
(A)
14 Nov
MID
Amurrio Club
(H)
22 Nov
MID
Aurrerá Vitoria
(A)
29 Nov
MID
Deportivo Alavés III
(H)
06 Dec
MID
Our top tip is 2.5 Goals: -2.5 (1.75 odds).
Aretxabaleta are rated 10% by our tip model, with the draw at 45% and Derio at 45%.
In the last 4 meetings they averaged 1.8 goals per game, with BTTS in 25% and over 2.5 in 25%.
Combo Double chance : draw or Derio and -2.5 goals
Our top tip is 2.5 Goals: -2.5 (1.75 odds).
Model lean: Aretxabaleta 10%, draw 45%, Derio 45%.
Both teams scored in 25% of the last 4 meetings.
Recent H2H averaged 1.8 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 25% of the time.
Saturday, 26th September 2026 at 10:00 UTC .
Aretxabaleta and Derio enter this one evenly matched on recent form, so we're leaning on -2.5 at odds of 1.75 (57% probability) to edge the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 clash.
Teams: Aretxabaleta vs Derio
Date: Sat, Sep 26, 2026
Time: 10:00 UTC
Venue:
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Sam M
Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict