Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Fluminense arrive in strong form (WWWWW) and are well-fancied to back 1X against Vasco DA Gama, with our model giving this a 80% probability at odds of 1.25.

Brazil: Carioca - 1
Sun, 1st Mar, 2026 Semi-finals
Fluminense

Fluminense

W W W W W
FT
1 - 1
Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama

W D W W L
24' Robert Renan
35' Robert Renan
47' Renê
52' Agustín Canobbio
56' Lucas Piton
57' Juan Freytes
65' Cauan Barros
74' Samuel Xavier
89' PH Ganso
90+6' Ganso
90+4' Ignácio
Prediction: 1X (1.25 Odds)
Double Chance 80% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.05

Fluminense

1.15

1.15 – 0.90

Vasco DA Gama

0.90

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro W. do Nascimento

Fluminense

1.95

48% implied

Draw

3.30

28% implied

Vasco DA Gama

3.90

24% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Double Chance Free

1X

Odds 1.25 80%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama

55%   Possession   45%

1   Shots on Target   4

79%   Pass Accuracy   80%

1   Corner Kicks   6

24   Fouls   14

0 6 0
2 3 0

Head to head

Last 5 meetings
5 games

3

Fluminense wins

0

Draws

2

Vasco DA Gama wins

2

Goals / game

40%

Both scored

40%

Over 2.5

22 Feb 2026
Vasco DA Gama
0-1
Fluminense
14 Dec 2025
Fluminense
1-0
Vasco DA Gama
11 Dec 2025
Vasco DA Gama
2-1
Fluminense
20 Oct 2025
Vasco DA Gama
2-0
Fluminense
24 May 2025
Fluminense
2-1
Vasco DA Gama

Carioca - 1 table

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1
Portuguesa RJ
6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
2
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
3
Nova Iguaçu
6 1 4 1 7:6 1 7
4
CFRJ / Maricá
6 1 1 4 6:15 -9 4

Top scorers

Carioca - 1
# Player Team Goals
1
Pedro
Flamengo
6
2
Patryck Ferreira
Bangu
6
3
K. Serna
Fluminense
5
4
Luan
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
3
5
John Kennedy
Fluminense
3
6
Gutemberg
Portuguesa RJ
3
7
MV
Volta Redonda
3
8
Lohan
Portuguesa RJ
3
9
Rhuan
Portuguesa RJ
3
10
Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
3

Recent form

Fluminense

4 W 0 D 6 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Vitoria 0-3 W
H Internacional 2-1 W
A Chapecoense-sc 2-1 L
H Santos 1-2 L
H Palmeiras 1-2 L
A Flamengo 1-0 L
H Coritiba 4-0 W
A Corinthians 1-3 W
A Platense 2-1 L
A Atletico-MG 3-1 L

Vasco DA Gama

5 W 1 D 4 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Atletico Paranaense 1-3 W
A Palmeiras 1-0 L
H Flamengo 1-4 L
H Corinthians 3-2 W
H Boca Juniors 1-3 L
A Sao Paulo 1-0 L
A Boca Juniors 0-1 W
H Remo 0-0 D
A Botafogo 1-2 W
H Coritiba 5-0 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.05

Fluminense

1.15

xG

Match

1.15 – 0.90

Vasco DA Gama

0.90

xG

Our tip model

80%
11%
9%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

48%
28%
24%
Fluminense Draw Vasco DA Gama

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Fluminense Vasco DA Gama
60% Recent form 40%
53% Attack 47%
50% Defence 50%
44% Poisson 56%
50% Head-to-head 50%
45% Goals 55%
50% Overall 50%

Combo Double chance : Fluminense or draw and -3.5 goals

Season numbers

When the goals come

0
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
1
4
31-45'
1
3
46-60'
3
4
61-75'
4
2
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
1
1
31-45'
2
1
46-60'
0
2
61-75'
2
1
76-90'
0

Side by side

Fluminense Vasco DA Gama
8 Played 8
7 Won 4
0 Drawn 2
1 Lost 2
13 Goals for 11
6 Goals against 5
3 Clean sheets 4
1 Failed to score 4

What comes next

Fluminense

Sao Paulo (A) 20 Nov MID
Mirassol (H) 22 Nov MID
Cruzeiro (H) 27 Nov MID
RB Bragantino (A) 03 Dec MID

Vasco DA Gama

Chapecoense-sc (A) 14 Nov MID
Internacional (H) 19 Nov MID
RB Bragantino (A) 22 Nov MID
Atletico-MG (A) 29 Nov MID

Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.25 odds).

Fluminense are rated 80% by our tip model, with the draw at 11% and Vasco DA Gama at 9%.

In the last 5 meetings they averaged 2 goals per game, with BTTS in 40% and over 2.5 in 40%.

Combo Double chance : Fluminense or draw and -3.5 goals

Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs

What is the best prediction for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.25 odds).

Who will win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?

Model lean: Fluminense 80%, draw 11%, Vasco DA Gama 9%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 2 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 40% of the time.

When is Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?

Sunday, 1st March 2026 at 21:00 UTC .

S

Written by

Sam M

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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