Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona enter this one evenly matched on recent form, so we're leaning on 2 at odds of 2.10 (48% probability) to edge the Copa del Rey clash.

Spain: Copa del Rey
Thu, 12th Feb, 2026 Semi-finals
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

W W W
FT
4 - 0
Barcelona

Barcelona

W W W
6' E. Garcia
14' A. Griezmann
26' Marc Casadó
33' A. Lookman
45' J. Alvarez
50' Giuliano Simeone
51' Marcos Llorente
79' Alejandro Baena
85' Eric García
86' Marc Pubill
86' Dani Olmo
86' Fermín López
Prediction: 2 (2.10 Odds) Lost
Away Win 48% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 1.20

Atletico Madrid

0.15

0.15 – 1.05

Barcelona

1.05

Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid J. Martinez

Atletico Madrid

3.10

31% implied

Draw

3.90

24% implied

Barcelona

2.10

45% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Free Tip Lost

X2

Odds 1.40 71%
3 5 Goals Lost

-3.5

Odds 1.73 58%
Away Win Lost

2

Odds 2.10 48%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

34%   Possession   66%

8   Shots on Target   4

82%   Pass Accuracy   89%

5   Corner Kicks   8

16   Fouls   9

0 5 3
1 3 1

Head to head

Last 4 meetings
4 games

0

Atletico Madrid wins

1

Draws

3

Barcelona wins

4.8

Goals / game

75%

Both scored

75%

Over 2.5

02 Dec 2025
Barcelona
3-1
Atletico Madrid
02 Apr 2025
Atletico Madrid
0-1
Barcelona
16 Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
2-4
Barcelona
25 Feb 2025
Barcelona
4-4
Atletico Madrid

Top scorers

Copa del Rey
# Player Team Goals
1
M. Díaz
Alaves
2
2
Alemão
Rayo Vallecano
2
3
T. Vizcay
Athletic Club
1
4
Carles Aleñá
Alaves
1
5
Jonny
Alaves
1
6
S. Sanchez
Athletic Club
1
7
Aitor Mañas
Alaves
1
8
C. Mitogo
Athletic Club
1
9
Gabriel Moscardo
Espanyol
1
10
Adri Carrión
Sestao River
1

Recent form

Atletico Madrid

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Barcelona 1-2 L
H Bayern München 0-2 L
A Levante 0-2 W
H Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 W
A VfB Stuttgart 1-1 D
A Espanyol 0-1 W
H Manchester United 2-0 W
A Alaves 1-2 W
H Real Madrid 2-1 W
H Osasuna 4-0 W

Barcelona

8 W 0 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Atletico Madrid 1-2 W
H Aston Villa 3-0 W
H Alaves 6-1 W
H Real Madrid 1-2 L
A Paris Saint Germain 4-2 L
A Real Betis 2-5 W
A Galatasaray 1-4 W
H Getafe 3-0 W
A Sevilla 1-3 W
H Racing Santander 7-2 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 1.20

Atletico Madrid

0.15

xG

Match

0.15 – 1.05

Barcelona

1.05

xG

Our tip model

23%
29%
48%

API-Football

10%
45%
45%

Bookmaker

31%
24%
45%
Atletico Madrid Draw Barcelona

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Atletico Madrid Barcelona
50% Recent form 50%
60% Attack 40%
33% Defence 67%
29% Head-to-head 71%
41% Goals 59%
43% Overall 57%

Double chance : draw or Barcelona

Season numbers

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
3
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
3
61-75'
1
1
76-90'
3
0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
1

Side by side

Atletico Madrid Barcelona
3 Played 3
3 Won 3
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
9 Goals for 6
2 Goals against 1
2 Clean sheets 2
0 Failed to score 0

What comes next

Atletico Madrid

Getafe (A) 22 Nov MID
Viking (H) 25 Nov MID
Elche (A) 28 Nov MID
Barcelona (A) 02 Dec MID

Barcelona

Villarreal (H) 22 Nov MID
Sabah FA (A) 25 Nov MID
Deportivo La Coruna (A) 29 Nov MID
Atletico Madrid (H) 02 Dec MID

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Away Win: 2 (2.10 odds).

Atletico Madrid are rated 23% by our tip model, with the draw at 29% and Barcelona at 48%.

In the last 4 meetings they averaged 4.8 goals per game, with BTTS in 75% and over 2.5 in 75%.

Double chance : draw or Barcelona

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona FAQs

What is the best prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Our top tip is Away Win: 2 (2.10 odds).

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Model lean: Atletico Madrid 23%, draw 29%, Barcelona 48%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 75% of the last 4 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 4.8 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 75% of the time.

When is Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Thursday, 12th February 2026 at 20:00 UTC , Metropolitano Stadium.

More Copa del Rey predictions

J

Written by

Joshua J

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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