Mali vs Senegal

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Senegal travel in excellent form (WDWW) while Mali have struggled recently (DDDW), making 2 at odds of 1.69 our pick for the meeting at Stade Ibn Batouta.

World: Africa Cup of Nations
Fri, 9th Jan, 2026 Quarter-finals
Mali

Mali

D D D W
FT
0 - 1
Senegal

Senegal

W D W W
23' Yves Bissouma
27' I. Ndiaye
29' Pape Gueye
45+3' Yves Bissouma
45+3' Yves Bissouma
56' Habib Diarra
61' Habib Diallo
83' Ibrahim Mbaye
90' Hamari Traoré
90+3' Kalidou Koulibaly
Prediction: 2 (1.69 Odds) Won
Away Win 59% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.55

Mali

0.55

0.55 – 2.00

Senegal

2.00

Stade Ibn-Batouta, Tanger Abongile Tom, South Africa

Mali

6.41

15% implied

Draw

3.66

27% implied

Senegal

1.69

58% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Free Tip Won

AWEH

Odds 1.39 72%
Win Either Half Won

AWEH

Odds 1.39 72%
Away Win Won

2

Odds 1.69 59%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Mali vs Senegal

35%   Possession   65%

2   Shots on Target   8

73%   Pass Accuracy   87%

5   Corner Kicks   7

8   Fouls   14

1 3 3
1 5 0

Head to head

Last 1 meetings
1 games

0

Mali wins

0

Draws

1

Senegal wins

3

Goals / game

100%

Both scored

100%

Over 2.5

26 Mar 2019
Senegal
2-1
Mali

Recent form

Mali

2 W 6 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Morocco 1-1 D
A Liberia 0-1 W
H Cape Verde Islands 3-1 W
A Iran 2-0 L
A Russia 0-0 D
H Senegal 0-1 L
A Comoros 0-0 D
A Morocco 1-1 D
H Zambia 1-1 D
A Jordan 0-0 D

Senegal

5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Comoros 0-1 W
A Ethiopia 0-1 W
A Mozambique 1-1 D
H Iraq 5-0 W
A Norway 3-2 L
A France 3-1 L
A Saudi Arabia 0-0 D
A USA 3-2 L
H Gambia 3-1 W
H Peru 2-0 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 2.55

Mali

0.55

xG

Match

0.55 – 2.00

Senegal

2.00

xG

Our tip model

18%
23%
59%

API-Football

50%
50%

Bookmaker

15%
27%
58%
Mali Draw Senegal

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Mali Senegal
29% Recent form 71%
23% Attack 77%
40% Defence 60%
0% Poisson 100%
20% Head-to-head 80%
33% Goals 67%
29% Overall 71%

Winner : Senegal

Season numbers

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
3
0
46-60'
1
2
61-75'
2
1
76-90'
3
0
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
1
2
76-90'
0

Side by side

Mali Senegal
4 Played 4
0 Won 3
4 Drawn 1
0 Lost 0
3 Goals for 10
3 Goals against 2
1 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 0

What comes next

Mali

Rwanda (H) 13 Nov MID
Rwanda (A) 17 Nov MID
Cape Verde Islands (A) 24 Mar MID
Liberia (H) 28 Mar MID

Senegal

Sudan (H) 12 Nov MID
Sudan (A) 16 Nov MID
Mozambique (A) 24 Mar MID
Ethiopia (H) 28 Mar MID

Mali vs Senegal: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Away Win: 2 (1.69 odds).

Mali are rated 18% by our tip model, with the draw at 23% and Senegal at 59%.

In the last 1 meetings they averaged 3 goals per game, with BTTS in 100% and over 2.5 in 100%.

Winner : Senegal

Mali vs Senegal FAQs

What is the best prediction for Mali vs Senegal?

Our top tip is Away Win: 2 (1.69 odds).

Who will win Mali vs Senegal?

Model lean: Mali 18%, draw 23%, Senegal 59%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 100% of the last 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 3 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 100% of the time.

When is Mali vs Senegal?

Friday, 9th January 2026 at 16:00 UTC , Stade Ibn Batouta.

M

Written by

Matoski

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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