Nigeria vs Mozambique

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Nigeria arrive in strong form (WWW) and are well-fancied to back 1 against Mozambique, with our model giving this a 70% probability at odds of 1.43.

World: Africa Cup of Nations
Mon, 5th Jan, 2026 Round of 16
Nigeria

Nigeria

W W W
FT
4 - 0
Mozambique

Mozambique

L W L
20' A. Lookman
25' V. Osimhen
38' Wilfred Ndidi
45+3' Frank Onyeka
47' V. Osimhen
62' Faisal Abdul Bangal
75' A. Adams
90+3' Calvin Bassey
Prediction: 1 (1.43 Odds) Won
Home Win 70% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 3.50

Nigeria

2.00

2.00 – 1.50

Mozambique

1.50

Complexe Sportif de Fès, Fez Abdou Abdel Mefire, Cameroon

Nigeria

1.43

69% implied

Draw

4.80

20% implied

Mozambique

8.85

11% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

1.5 Goals Won

Over 1.5

Odds 1.27 79%
Free Tip Won

1

Odds 1.36 74%
Home Win Won

1

Odds 1.43 70%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Nigeria vs Mozambique

62%   Possession   38%

9   Shots on Target   0

90%   Pass Accuracy   79%

5   Corner Kicks   0

22   Fouls   13

0 3 2
3 1 0

Head to head

Last 2 meetings
2 games

2

Nigeria wins

0

Draws

0

Mozambique wins

5.5

Goals / game

100%

Both scored

100%

Over 2.5

16 Oct 2023
Mozambique
2-3
Nigeria
15 Jan 2014
Nigeria
4-2
Mozambique

Recent form

Nigeria

5 W 3 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Russia 3-3 D
A Guinea-Bissau 3-0 L
H Madagascar 2-1 W
A Portugal 2-1 L
A Poland 2-2 D
A Jamaica 0-3 W
H Zimbabwe 2-0 W
A Jordan 2-2 D
A Iran 1-2 W
A Algeria 0-2 W

Mozambique

2 W 2 D 6 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Sudan 4-1 W
H Senegal 1-1 D
A Indonesia 1-0 L
A Oman 4-1 L
A Nigeria 4-0 L
H Cameroon 1-2 L
A Gabon 2-3 W
A Ivory Coast 1-0 L
A Chad 2-2 D
A Morocco 1-0 L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 3.50

Nigeria

2.00

xG

Match

2.00 – 1.50

Mozambique

1.50

xG

Our tip model

70%
17%
13%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

69%
20%
11%
Nigeria Draw Mozambique

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Nigeria Mozambique
75% Recent form 25%
67% Attack 33%
56% Defence 44%
60% Poisson 40%
100% Head-to-head 0%
64% Goals 36%
64% Overall 36%

Combo Double chance : Nigeria or draw and +1.5 goals

Season numbers

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
2
2
31-45'
2
2
46-60'
1
3
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
1
1
46-60'
2
2
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
1

Side by side

Nigeria Mozambique
3 Played 3
3 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 2
8 Goals for 4
4 Goals against 5
0 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 1

What comes next

Nigeria

Tanzania (H) 13 Nov MID
Tanzania (A) 17 Nov MID
Madagascar (A) 24 Mar MID
Guinea-Bissau (H) 28 Mar MID

Mozambique

Ethiopia (H) 13 Nov MID
Ethiopia (A) 17 Nov MID
Senegal (H) 24 Mar MID
Sudan (A) 28 Mar MID

Nigeria vs Mozambique: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.43 odds).

Nigeria are rated 70% by our tip model, with the draw at 17% and Mozambique at 13%.

In the last 2 meetings they averaged 5.5 goals per game, with BTTS in 100% and over 2.5 in 100%.

Combo Double chance : Nigeria or draw and +1.5 goals

Nigeria vs Mozambique FAQs

What is the best prediction for Nigeria vs Mozambique?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.43 odds).

Who will win Nigeria vs Mozambique?

Model lean: Nigeria 70%, draw 17%, Mozambique 13%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 100% of the last 2 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 5.5 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 100% of the time.

When is Nigeria vs Mozambique?

Monday, 5th January 2026 at 19:00 UTC .

J

Written by

Joshua J

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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