Italy vs Northern Ireland

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Italy arrive in strong form (WWWWL) and are well-fancied to back 1 against Northern Ireland at New Balance Arena, with our model giving this a 78% probability at odds of 1.28.

World: World Cup - Qualification Europe
Thu, 26th Mar, 2026 Semi-finals
Italy

Italy

W W W W L
FT
2 - 0
Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

L W L L W
56' S. Tonali
58' Alessandro Bastoni
80' M. Kean
Prediction: 1 (1.28 Odds)
Home Win 78% confidence

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 3.40

Italy

2.25

2.25 – 1.15

Northern Ireland

1.15

New Balance Arena, Bergamo D. Makkelie

Italy

1.28

74% implied

Draw

5.50

17% implied

Northern Ireland

11.00

9% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Home Win Free

1

Odds 1.28 78%
Banker of The Day Free

1

Odds 1.28 78%
Free Tip Free

1

Odds 1.28 78%
2.5 Goals Free

+2.5

Odds 1.80 56%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Italy vs Northern Ireland

63%   Possession   37%

8   Shots on Target   1

84%   Pass Accuracy   76%

12   Corner Kicks   3

11   Fouls   8

0 1 2
0 0 0

Head to head

Last 2 meetings
2 games

1

Italy wins

1

Draws

0

Northern Ireland wins

1

Goals / game

0%

Both scored

0%

Over 2.5

15 Nov 2021
Northern Ireland
0-0
Italy
25 Mar 2021
Italy
2-0
Northern Ireland

Recent form

Italy

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Türkiye 3-1 W
A France 1-1 D
A Türkiye 1-4 W
H Belgium 0-2 L
A Greece 0-1 W
A Luxembourg 0-1 W
H Northern Ireland 2-0 W
H Norway 1-4 L
A Moldova 0-2 W
H Israel 3-0 W

Northern Ireland

4 W 3 D 3 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Georgia 0-0 D
A Ukraine 0-3 W
H Hungary 0-0 D
A Georgia 0-1 W
A France 3-1 L
H Guinea 1-0 W
A Wales 1-1 D
A Italy 2-0 L
H Luxembourg 1-0 W
A Slovakia 1-0 L

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Total 3.40

Italy

2.25

xG

Match

2.25 – 1.15

Northern Ireland

1.15

xG

Our tip model

78%
12%
10%

API-Football

45%
45%
10%

Bookmaker

74%
17%
9%
Italy Draw Northern Ireland

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals 0%
Over 2.5 goals 0%
Over 3.5 goals 0%
Both teams to score 0%

Team comparison

Italy Northern Ireland
67% Recent form 33%
78% Attack 22%
36% Defence 64%
72% Poisson 28%
80% Head-to-head 20%
100% Goals 0%
67% Overall 33%

Winner : Italy

Season numbers

When the goals come

2
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
0
4
31-45'
2
4
46-60'
1
4
61-75'
1
8
76-90'
1
1
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
2
2
31-45'
1
1
46-60'
0
1
61-75'
2
5
76-90'
1

Side by side

Italy Northern Ireland
8 Played 6
6 Won 3
0 Drawn 0
2 Lost 3
21 Goals for 7
12 Goals against 6
4 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 2

What comes next

Italy

France (H) 12 Nov MID
Belgium (A) 15 Nov MID

Northern Ireland

Ukraine (H) 14 Nov MID
Hungary (A) 17 Nov MID

Italy vs Northern Ireland: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.28 odds).

Italy are rated 78% by our tip model, with the draw at 12% and Northern Ireland at 10%.

In the last 2 meetings they averaged 1 goals per game, with BTTS in 0% and over 2.5 in 0%.

Winner : Italy

Italy vs Northern Ireland FAQs

What is the best prediction for Italy vs Northern Ireland?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.28 odds).

Who will win Italy vs Northern Ireland?

Model lean: Italy 78%, draw 12%, Northern Ireland 10%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 0% of the last 2 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 1 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 0% of the time.

When is Italy vs Northern Ireland?

Thursday, 26th March 2026 at 19:45 UTC , New Balance Arena.

S

Written by

Sam M

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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