Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips — expert analysis powered by HelloPredict

Our expert prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 1X, at odds of 1.59 with a 63% probability rating.

Spain: Super Cup
Thu, 8th Jan, 2026 Semi-finals
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

FT
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

-5' Vinicius Júnior
2' F. Valverde
55' Rodrygo
58' A. Sorloth
Prediction: 1X (1.59 Odds) Lost
Double Chance 63% confidence
King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain

Atletico Madrid

2.97

33% implied

Draw

3.58

28% implied

Real Madrid

2.51

39% implied

1X2 bookmaker odds · implied probability (normalized)

All our tips for this match

Double Chance Lost

1X

Odds 1.59 63%

Match statistics

Match Statistics

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

55%   Possession   45%

6   Shots on Target   4

87%   Pass Accuracy   84%

9   Corner Kicks   1

7   Fouls   7

0 0 1
0 1 0

Head to head

Last 7 meetings
7 games

3

Atletico Madrid wins

3

Draws

1

Real Madrid wins

3.3

Goals / game

86%

Both scored

43%

Over 2.5

27 Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
5-2
Real Madrid
12 Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
1-0
Real Madrid
04 Mar 2025
Real Madrid
2-1
Atletico Madrid
08 Feb 2025
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
29 Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Real Madrid
04 Feb 2024
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
18 Jan 2024
Atletico Madrid
4-2
Real Madrid

Top scorers

Super Cup
# Player Team Goals
1
Raphinha
Barcelona
4
2
A. Sørloth
Atletico Madrid
1

Recent form

Atletico Madrid

7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
H Barcelona 1-2 L
H Bayern München 0-2 L
A Levante 0-2 W
H Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 W
A VfB Stuttgart 1-1 D
A Espanyol 0-1 W
H Manchester United 2-0 W
A Alaves 1-2 W
H Real Madrid 2-1 W
H Osasuna 4-0 W

Real Madrid

9 W 0 D 1 L in the last 10
Scored Conceded
A Valencia 0-3 W
A AEK Athens FC 2-3 W
A Racing Santander 0-3 W
A Barcelona 1-2 W
H RB Leipzig 4-1 W
H Sevilla 4-1 W
A AS Roma 3-4 W
H Villarreal 1-0 W
A Atletico Madrid 2-1 L
A Elche 2-3 W

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2

Our tip model

63%
20%
17%

API-Football

50%
50%

Bookmaker

33%
28%
39%
Atletico Madrid Draw Real Madrid

Team comparison

Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
62% Head-to-head 38%
60% Goals 40%
61% Overall 39%

Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw

Season numbers

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
0
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0

Side by side

Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
0 Played 0
0 Won 0
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 0
0 Goals for 0
0 Goals against 0
0 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 0

What comes next

Atletico Madrid

Getafe (A) 22 Nov MID
Viking (H) 25 Nov MID
Elche (A) 28 Nov MID
Barcelona (A) 02 Dec MID

Real Madrid

Celta Vigo (H) 21 Nov MID
PSV Eindhoven (H) 24 Nov MID
Alaves (H) 28 Nov MID
Real Sociedad (A) 02 Dec MID

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: preview and prediction

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.59 odds).

Atletico Madrid are rated 63% by our tip model, with the draw at 20% and Real Madrid at 17%.

In the last 7 meetings they averaged 3.3 goals per game, with BTTS in 86% and over 2.5 in 43%.

Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid FAQs

What is the best prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.59 odds).

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Model lean: Atletico Madrid 63%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 17%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scored in 86% of the last 7 meetings.

How many goals are expected? (xG)

Recent H2H averaged 3.3 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing 43% of the time.

When is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Thursday, 8th January 2026 at 19:00 UTC , King Abdullah Sports City.

S

Written by

Sam M

Football Analyst & Predictor · HelloPredict

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